Predictive analytics

Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science

Introduction A core task of actuarial analysis is estimation of risk rates for insured events. This includes analyses such as estimating mortality rates, lapse rates, incidence rates, termination rates and so on. In addition to determining best estimates for risk rates, understanding the uncertainty around the best estimates is a critical component of the overall …

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Tracking Presidential Polls: A New Approach

Final Review: A summary of the final results can be found here. Original article: 7/22/2016:  Being in the height of the presidential election season, there is intense interest as to who is likely to win the November elections.  The standard approach in the press has been to commission a poll, report the results and compare …

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Predictive Analytics in Long-Term Care

Howard Zail, partner at Elucidor, will be presenting ideas on predictive analytics in long-term care at the 2012 Society of Actuaries (SOA) annual conference.  He will present on Tuesday, October 16 in  “Session 112:  Hot Topics in Long Term Care Insurance.” Howard will describe how advances in predictive analytics can be applied in an insurance environment …

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Turing Award goes to Bayesian Network Specialist

The Turing Award, which is the computer science equivalent of the Nobel Prize, was awarded to Judea Pearl.  Pearl was honored for his contributions to artificial intelligence.  He championed a probabilistic way of creating smart computer systems rather than building a set of rules.  These systems are encapsulated in Bayesian Networks. Bayesian analysis forms a …

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Lotter Actuarial Partners is now Elucidor

In 1994, I formed Lotter Actuarial Partners, Inc., an actuarial consulting firm specializing in buy-side insurance company appraisals, mortality science and critical illness product design and underwriting. Over the ensuing years, Lotter Actuarial Partners was fortunate to attract talented and creative actuaries, systems analysts, programmers, medical doctors, underwriters and other professionals who brought additional expertise …

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