Bayesian analysis forms a core component of Elucidor’s DeepInsight! technology.  DeepInsight!  is used in the insurance, reinsurance and investment community, to answers fundamental questions such as:

• How risky is a particular insured?
• When will a bond default?
• What makes this mortgage more or less secure than the rest of a pool of mortgages?
• How do you improve your underwriting capabilities for a set of insurance risks.  

Instead of creating a set of rules to establish the risk takers underwriting procedures, DeepInsight! uses the available data to formulate the risk analysis through the use of Bayesian Networks.

You can read more about Judea Pearl here and here.

Ken most recently headed the runoff phase of MIIX, one of the largest medical malpractice insurers in the US.  Ken has also restructured the auto insurer, Consumer First, in preparation for liquidation.

Ken’s turnaround expertise was honed during his service with the Palmieri Company, an organization famed for its successes in turnaround management.  Ken’s Palmieri experience included multi-year stints in senior positions at Colorado Ute Electric and Mutual Benefit Life Insurance Company.

Ken also managed Markham Insurance Company (Toronto, Canada) during its restructuring.

Ken has held senior positions at McGraw Hill and Chronar Corporation.

Ken holds an MBA from St. John’s University.

Ken brings a wealth of experience to Elucidor. As a senior executive with over 30 years in industry, he is an expert who can rightfully claim a string of successes in corporate workouts, rehabilitations, liquidations and M&A activities involving troubled companies.  We are very pleased that Ken has joined our team.

- Johan Lotter, Partner, Elucidor

Over the ensuing years, Lotter Actuarial Partners was fortunate to attract talented and creative actuaries, systems analysts, programmers, medical doctors, underwriters and other professionals who brought additional expertise to the practice. Today, the practice provides, in addition to its original specialties, predictive analytics, long-term care expertise, insurance company rehabilitation know-how, litigation support, arbitration support, computer systems design and implementation, reinsurance reengineering and impaired life underwriting services.

Over the years we have developed a  landmark consulting service, DeepInsight!, our predictive analytics platform.  DeepInsight! is built on a foundation of powerful machine learning, generalized linear modeling and Bayesian inference.  It is the tool we use to discover relationships between predictor and predicted variables using data that, just a few years ago, would have been regarded as too sparse or too complicated to yield meaningful conclusions, given the methods then available.

The intellectual leap made by DeepInsight! was spurred by two modern developments:

• First, academics and data engineers have invented new powerful methods and algorithms for extracting information from experience records and using this information to predict future events;
• Second, computing hardware capacity and software computation speeds have advanced to a stage where ultrafast computations became practicable.

In essence, DeepInsight! is a statistical tool specifically geared to bring cutting edge machine learning and Bayesian techniques to risk taking financial institutions.  It has natural application in every type of insurance business, including life, survivorship, long term care, critical illness and property and casualty.  But DeepInsight!’s reach readily extends to other businesses such as banks and hedge funds where accurate prediction of risk parameters through the use of data mining can be counted on to add value.

Thus Lotter Actuarial Partners has expanded from a somewhat narrow consulting company in 1994 to a firm now providing the many services enumerated above plus DeepInsight!’s mathematical data analytics. These also find application outside the realm of insurance and reinsurance.

We have chosen to rebrand Lotter Actuarial Partners as “Elucidor” to reflect the widened scope of our activities. We hope that our old and new clients will like this new name.

We continue to provide the same level of quality services and dedicated expertise that has been a hallmark of our business since 1994.  Our devotion to professionalism, hard science and clear elucidation remains alive.

Johan Lotter
Partner
Elucidor

Elucidor can help you get the most out of your Critical Illness experience data.  Because Critical Illness insurance is such a new product, there is very little data available to price benefits.  Using Elucidor’s proprietary predictive modeling engine, DeepInsight!, it is possible to determine within a few short years of writing new Critical Illness business whether the emerging experience is consistent with pricing assumptions.  We will look at the experience of each benefit separately and recommend adjustments to your pricing assumptions using a blend of your current assumptions and your emerging experience.

In business, economics and other fields … decisions will increasingly be based on data and analysis rather than on experience and intuition. We can start being a lot more scientific.

Research analysis cited by the article suggests that companies adopting “data driven decision making” can achieve material productivity gains.

… the march of quantification, made possible by enormous new sources of data, will sweep through academia, business and government. There is no area that is going to be untouched.

Related Articles:

• Elucidor’s Predictive Analytics Engine

According to Bloomberg, only 3 of the 11 U.S. pension funds with assets of more than $50 billion have reduced their assumptions since 2007-08.

Perry brings a wealth of experience to Elucidor. As a senior reinsurance executive with over 25 years of experience in the insurance industry, he is an expert in reinsurance, long-term care, life and other actuarial matters.  We are very pleased that he has joined our team.

- Johan Lotter, Partner, Elucidor

We hope you enjoy this website and welcome your feedback at info@elucidor.com.