Actuarial Pricing and Projection Models: The PREDICT! Platform

PREDICT! is a highly customizable and flexible actuarial product pricing, risk modeling and analytical system.

PREDICT! is used for pricing new products, and producing financial projections for inforce business. The system is designed for easy implementation of sensitivity testing and stochastic modeling.    The stochastic modeling incorporates simulation of both systematic and non-systematic risks.  Systematic risks take into account variability of the underlying assumptions and parameters.  Non-systematic risks arise from the randomness of claims, lapse rates and other factors.

Predict! is robust and has extensive reporting capabilities.  The modeling output is stored in a relational database, allowing for use of standard reporting tools to produce highly customized reports.  Thus even a non-programmer can produce specialized reports that suit a particular need.  The platform can be integrated directly into company systems. Modeling can be done on both a per policy or a per cell basis.

The system includes additional components for:

  • Projecting both assets and liabilities allowing for evaluation of asset / liability management strategies
  • Assessing the impact of reinsurance strategies
  • Sensitivity testing of policyholder behavior as it pertains to lapse rates or other factors

The PREDICT! system allows you to establish and store a range of sensitivity test assumption sets that drill down to a granular level of detail.  Each set of sensitivity tests can be used as the basis for an actuarial “expected” projection or a simulation projection.  The reporting tools then allow for easy comparison of results across multiple dimensions.

Elucidor takes a very different approach to its pricing software compared to other actuarial consultants.  Traditional systems tend to be “black box” in nature, complex to learn and difficult to customize.  PREDICT! is a set of integrated tools built in the R programming language.  R is an open source language that has fast become one of the most widely used analytics and modeling platforms.  Customizing and extending PREDICT! is done directly in R  ensuring a very tight and speedy integration between  the product design and the core actuarial pricing routines.

The open nature of the source programming and the output allow for a far greater degree of flexibility, extensibility and enhancement than is possible from other commercial vendors.