We have written in collaboration Professor Michael Ludkowski and Ph.D candidate James Risk of U.C. Santa Barbara, a paper introducing Gaussian Processes (GPs) to the actuarial community. Our paper has focused on a practical implementation of GPs in mortality analysis. A pre-publication version of the paper can be found here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08291 GPs are an extremely powerful …
A WORD ON STATISTICS by Wislawa Szymborska (translated from the Polish by Joanna Trzeciak) Out of every hundred people, those who always know better: fifty-two. Unsure of every step: almost all the rest. Ready to help, if it doesn’t take long: forty-nine. Always good, because they cannot be otherwise: four — well, maybe five. Able …
Elucidor has moved across the road. Our new address is: Elucidor, LLC 140 Broadway, 46th Floor New York, NY 10005 Tel: 212.532.6433 info@elucidor.com
Howard Zail from Elucidor and Nefissa Sator from Forsides Actuary recently delivered a joint presentation to the Actuarial Society of New York on “Solvency II and Predictive Analytics in LTC and Beyond: How U.S. companies can improve Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) by using Advanced techniques developed for Solvency II and emerging predictive analytics methods”. The presentation was …
Predictive Analytics Presentation on ERM to the Actuarial Society of New York Read More »
Here are some recent articles about data science that are worth reading: On Data Science education: Data Science should not be taught in business schools White House To Universities: We Need More Data Scientists Around the industry: IBM to open up Watson to third party developers Research Methods: How Science goes Wrong
Something interesting happened in the lead up to the presidential election. Most of the mainstream media outlets were predicting a statistical dead heat between Obama and Romney, and only towards the end did some in the media start reporting that Obama had a razor thin margin. However, this so-called statistical tie was at odds with …
Bayesian Analytics and the Presidential Election Read More »
The attached opinion piece by Robert Samuelson in the Washington Post references an article by David H. Autor of MIT. The article describes some of the problems of Social Security’s Disability Program and the failure of past reforms, and reviews three different proposals that attempt to mitigate the problems.
The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (Calstrs), the second largest public pension fund in the US, reduced its assumed rate of return from 7.75% to 7.5%. Calstrs is a $145 billion fund. According to Bloomberg, only 3 of the 11 U.S. pension funds with assets of more than $50 billion have reduced their assumptions since 2007-08.
Here is a classic Youtube video on the history of life expectancies throughout the world :
