Covid-19 Progression Analysis Introduction This updates a prior post analyzing the growth rate of Covid-19 infections and deaths by country. The analysis is conducted as of 2020-03-24 The daily growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases and deaths are calculated as: \(G_{confirmed}=growth~rate~confirmed=log(Confirmed_t / Confirmed_{t-1})\) \(G_{deaths}=growth~rate~deaths=log(Deaths_t / Deaths_{t-1})\) Using this formulation, the total growth after \(d\) days …
Introduction In analyzing the growth trajectories of the Coronavirus, a key question is whether the US and other countries are going to follow the explosion of cases and deaths in Italy or are going to level out, as is being experienced in China and South Korea. My view is that in an exponential growth scenario …
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS: Princess Diamond Corona Virus Risk Analysis Introduction This report is a preliminary analysis of the risk of infection (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and death (fatality rate or FR) from the corona virus. The analysis is based on the data derived from the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship which experienced an outbreak of the virus …
Introduction This is a second article in the series of Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science. The first article introduced the Bayesian approach to inferring risk rates and predicting future claims in an actuarial context and built a practical model in Greta, a probabilistic programming language, to conduct the analysis. In a beta binomial model, a …
II. Probabilistic Programming: Survival Analysis Read More »
Introduction A core task of actuarial analysis is estimation of risk rates for insured events. This includes analyses such as estimating mortality rates, lapse rates, incidence rates, termination rates and so on. In addition to determining best estimates for risk rates, understanding the uncertainty around the best estimates is a critical component of the overall …
I. Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science Read More »
The CDC has just published its new set of reports analyzing the trends in mortality and life expectancy from 2016 to 2017. Unfortunately, there has been a decline in overall life expectancies in the US. Sources of mortality that have shown statistically significant increases in mortality are (from highest to lowest impact): Uninentional Injuries Influenza …
Life Expectancies in the US Worsen (but with some bright spots) Read More »
Here are some interesting books that I have been reading and would recommend to others. Some of the books are general in nature and accessible to a wide audience, others can be quite technical. The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis (General): This is one of the best books that I have read in years. It is …
We have written in collaboration Professor Michael Ludkowski and Ph.D candidate James Risk of U.C. Santa Barbara, a paper introducing Gaussian Processes (GPs) to the actuarial community. Our paper has focused on a practical implementation of GPs in mortality analysis. A pre-publication version of the paper can be found here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08291 GPs are an extremely powerful …
A WORD ON STATISTICS by Wislawa Szymborska (translated from the Polish by Joanna Trzeciak) Out of every hundred people, those who always know better: fifty-two. Unsure of every step: almost all the rest. Ready to help, if it doesn’t take long: forty-nine. Always good, because they cannot be otherwise: four — well, maybe five. Able …
Final Review: A summary of the final results can be found here. Original article: 7/22/2016: Being in the height of the presidential election season, there is intense interest as to who is likely to win the November elections. The standard approach in the press has been to commission a poll, report the results and compare …
