quick_post3.utf8.md R Markdown This is an R Markdown document. Markdown is a simple formatting syntax for authoring HTML, PDF, and MS Word documents. For more details on using R Markdown see http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com. When you click the Knit button a document will be generated that includes both content as well as the output of any embedded …
A Solana user approves what appears to be a routine token swap, but the transaction silently grants unlimited spending authority to a malicious contract. Another user receives an NFT that looks legitimate but carries a hidden instruction to drain the wallet. These are not hypothetical scenarios. They occur regularly across the Solana blockchain because transaction …
Transaction Preview and Risk Alerts: How Solflare Prevents Phishing and Rug Pulls Read More »
A common misconception in DeFi is that a transaction is safe if the wallet shows a familiar token amount and the gas fee looks reasonable. In reality, low cost and low risk are different properties. A cheap transaction can authorize a malicious contract, route assets through an unexpected call, or leave an approval active long …
Gas Optimization, Transaction Simulation, and Portfolio Tracking: A Safer DeFi Workflow Read More »
A developer evaluating wallet software for custody of significant holdings faces a practical puzzle: how to distinguish between claims of security and evidence of security. Marketing materials often describe features such as “open-source” or “non-custodial” without explaining what those terms actually require in terms of code review, update cadence, or third-party verification. The distinction matters …
In a decentralized exchange, the quoted price is not necessarily waiting for a buyer and seller to agree. On Uniswap, the trade itself changes the market. That counterintuitive fact explains both the power and the risk of the Uniswap protocol: liquidity pools provide continuous execution, but every swap interacts with mathematical rules, available capital, network …
Uniswap V3 Myths: What the Protocol Really Does—and Where the Risks Begin Read More »
Covid-19 Progression Analysis Introduction This updates a prior post analyzing the growth rate of Covid-19 infections and deaths by country. The analysis is conducted as of 2020-03-24 The daily growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases and deaths are calculated as: \(G_{confirmed}=growth~rate~confirmed=log(Confirmed_t / Confirmed_{t-1})\) \(G_{deaths}=growth~rate~deaths=log(Deaths_t / Deaths_{t-1})\) Using this formulation, the total growth after \(d\) days …
Introduction In analyzing the growth trajectories of the Coronavirus, a key question is whether the US and other countries are going to follow the explosion of cases and deaths in Italy or are going to level out, as is being experienced in China and South Korea. My view is that in an exponential growth scenario …
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS: Princess Diamond Corona Virus Risk Analysis Introduction This report is a preliminary analysis of the risk of infection (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and death (fatality rate or FR) from the corona virus. The analysis is based on the data derived from the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship which experienced an outbreak of the virus …
Introduction This is a second article in the series of Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science. The first article introduced the Bayesian approach to inferring risk rates and predicting future claims in an actuarial context and built a practical model in Greta, a probabilistic programming language, to conduct the analysis. In a beta binomial model, a …
II. Probabilistic Programming: Survival Analysis Read More »
Introduction A core task of actuarial analysis is estimation of risk rates for insured events. This includes analyses such as estimating mortality rates, lapse rates, incidence rates, termination rates and so on. In addition to determining best estimates for risk rates, understanding the uncertainty around the best estimates is a critical component of the overall …
I. Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science Read More »
