We have written in collaboration Professor Michael Ludkowski and Ph.D candidate James Risk of U.C. Santa Barbara, a paper introducing Gaussian Processes (GPs) to the actuarial community. Our paper has focused on a practical implementation of GPs in mortality analysis. A pre-publication version of the paper can be found here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08291 GPs are an extremely powerful …
Update September 26, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 72% | Probability of Trump Win: 28% Clinton – Trump Spread: 2.3% Clinton’s slide continued over the week. On the eve of the first debate, the two candidates are close, but Clinton still has a lead, although clearly not insurmountable. Even without any change in sentiment, there is enough …
A WORD ON STATISTICS by Wislawa Szymborska (translated from the Polish by Joanna Trzeciak) Out of every hundred people, those who always know better: fifty-two. Unsure of every step: almost all the rest. Ready to help, if it doesn’t take long: forty-nine. Always good, because they cannot be otherwise: four — well, maybe five. Able …
Update September 12, 2016: Probability of Clinton Win: 75% | Probability of Trump Win: 25% Clinton – Trump Spread: 2.8% Clinton continues on a downward trajectory and has lost a substantial portion of her lead following the convention. September 6: Probability of Clinton Win: 82% | Probability of Trump Win: 18% Clinton – Trump Spread: 3.8% We continue to …
Update August 30, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 90% | Probability of Trump Win: 10% Clinton – Trump Spread: 5.6% Clinton’s lead continues to trickle downwards, but she remains in a strong position overall. Elucidor uses a Gaussian process approach to tracking the polling results. This methodology provides an automated way of smoothing results over a …
Update August 23, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 94% | Probability of Trump Win: 6% Clinton – Trump Spread: 6.5% Clinton’s lead dipped slightly over the last week, but she still holds a commanding position. Original Article: August 15, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 97% | Probability of Trump Win: 3% Clinton – Trump Spread: 8.5% We continue …
Update: August 8, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 99% | Probability of Trump Win: 1% Clinton – Trump Spread: 10.9% Clinton now has reached the 99% probability of winning milestone, if the election were to be held today. The post convention polls continue to solidify Clinton’s lead. This is the highest lead that Clinton has had since …
With the Democrat and Republican conventions finishing, we can expect to see the state of the presidential race to start stabilizing. Clinton’s probability of a win dropped precipitously following the FBI disclosures and continued dropping through the Republican convention. There has been no significant polling post convention so the results still reflect the pre-Democrat convention position. …
Final Review: A summary of the final results can be found here. Original article: 7/22/2016: Being in the height of the presidential election season, there is intense interest as to who is likely to win the November elections. The standard approach in the press has been to commission a poll, report the results and compare …
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