Update August 23, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 94% | Probability of Trump Win: 6%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 6.5%
Clinton’s lead dipped slightly over the last week, but she still holds a commanding position.
Original Article: August 15, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 97% | Probability of Trump Win: 3%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 8.5%
We continue to track the presidential elections using an advanced gaussian process model. See here for more details.
To recap, Trump managed to bring the race to a tie after his convention, and then he fell into a rapid decent. Over the last week, the polls have stabilized somewhat although at a level that is highly favorable to Clinton.
We compare Elucidor’s “Probability of Win” to certain other key sources (August 15, 2016):
| Source | Probability of Clinton Win |
| Elucidor | 97% |
| FiveThirtyEight (“Nowcast” version) | 91% |
| New York Times (the Upshot) | 88% |
| Huffington Post | >99% |
| Betting Fair (UK betting market) | 70% |
The outlier appears to be the Betting Fair market. If a bettor is locked into the bet until election day, you would certainly want to be more cautious that our analysis suggests (which is based on the state of the race as of today). However, the Betting Fair market allows for early cashing out and so this looks to be an outlier relative to the currently available data.