Update August 30, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 90% | Probability of Trump Win: 10%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 5.6%
Clinton’s lead continues to trickle downwards, but she remains in a strong position overall.
Elucidor uses a Gaussian process approach to tracking the polling results. This methodology provides an automated way of smoothing results over a period of time, with the smoothing parameters automatically tuned by the model.