Update September 12, 2016:
Probability of Clinton Win: 75% | Probability of Trump Win: 25%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 2.8%
Clinton continues on a downward trajectory and has lost a substantial portion of her lead following the convention.
September 6:
Probability of Clinton Win: 82% | Probability of Trump Win: 18%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 3.8%
We continue to track the presidential elections using our Gaussian Process model. Following the Labor Day weekend, we see a distinct fall of support for Clinton from her previous highs. She still holds a commanding position, but her lead has definitively shrunk.
An interesting feature of the campaign has been the volatility of the spread between Clinton and Trump. Clinton nevertheless has been in the lead at least at some level for over a year. The chance that Trump is in a leading position is a little better than trying to roll a six on a die, and so it is possible but still unlikely at this stage.
As a reminder, the analysis is based on the state of the race assuming the election were held today. There is a lot more uncertainty about the projected position as at the election date in November.