October 1, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 88% | Probability of Trump Win: 12%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 4.4%
There has been a clear and substantial swing in voter sentiment towards Clinton following the first presidential debate. Trump compounded the effect of the debate by a bad follow up week. Most of the polls were conducted before the end of the week, so we can expect Clinton to continue to improve into the beginning of next week as the older polls are flushed from the analysis.