October 9, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 95% | Probability of Trump Win: 5%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 6%
All the current polls were conducted before the news on Friday . One would think that the relentlessly negative reporting over the last couple of days will be further damaging to Trump. This is the state of the race entering into the second presidential debate. It’s likely that the debate will be the last chance Trump has to have any hope of turning his campaign around.
Elucidor’s probability of Clinton leading is higher than some of the other analysts like FiveThirtyEight and Upshot. We note again that our analysis represents the current state of the race and not a projection to Nov 8.
Over the last 25 polls, Trump has only led in one.