Update: October 17, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 98% | Probability of Trump Win: 2%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 7.3%
The race has remained fairly static over the last week. It seems as if Trump’s base is mostly sticking with him despite the parade of women who, over the last week, claimed that he was sexually inappropriate with them. Trump is essentially stuck at a level that is highly unlikely to deliver him victory, with no signs that he is creating a game changing event. Wednesday’s debate might be his last chance to turn his campaign around. Keep posted!
October 12, 2016
Probability of Clinton Win: 98% | Probability of Trump Win: 2%
Clinton – Trump Spread: 7.5%
As expected, the effect of the Trump “bus tape” and a non-game changing debate performance resulted in a further decline in Trump’s chances. He is now down to a 2% chance of winning if the election were held today. Clinton is near her all time highs.
Our analysis continues to show a more optimistic view for Clinton compared to other analysts and the betting markets. Bet Fair has Clinton at a 84% chance of winning.