Into the final stretch now, Clinton’s lead is shrinking sharply from over 8% in the middle of October to 5.4% today. She is still in a commanding position, but a continued fall combined with the Comey e-mail disclosures could make for a much closer race then was expected just a couple of weeks ago. The polls over the next few days will provide an indication whether the new email disclosures are having a material effect. Initial indications suggest the disclosures will cause roughly a 1%-2% tightening of the spread. We will know more by midweek.
We now have a stand-alone page which shows the ongoing state of the race. It can be found here.