With the Democrat and Republican conventions finishing, we can expect to see the state of the presidential race to start stabilizing. Clinton’s probability of a win dropped precipitously following the FBI disclosures and continued dropping through the Republican convention. There has been no significant polling post convention so the results still reflect the pre-Democrat convention position. On Monday we will likely see a Clinton bump… Stay tuned:
Position at 7/26/2016: Probability of a Clinton Win: 50%
For details on our approach, see http://www.elucidor.com/2016/07/22/tracking-presidential-polls-a-new-approach/