Update September 12, 2016: Probability of Clinton Win: 75% | Probability of Trump Win: 25% Clinton – Trump Spread: 2.8% Clinton continues on a downward trajectory and has lost a substantial portion of her lead following the convention. September 6: Probability of Clinton Win: 82% | Probability of Trump Win: 18% Clinton – Trump Spread: 3.8% We continue to …
Update August 30, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 90% | Probability of Trump Win: 10% Clinton – Trump Spread: 5.6% Clinton’s lead continues to trickle downwards, but she remains in a strong position overall. Elucidor uses a Gaussian process approach to tracking the polling results. This methodology provides an automated way of smoothing results over a …
Update August 23, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 94% | Probability of Trump Win: 6% Clinton – Trump Spread: 6.5% Clinton’s lead dipped slightly over the last week, but she still holds a commanding position. Original Article: August 15, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 97% | Probability of Trump Win: 3% Clinton – Trump Spread: 8.5% We continue …
Update: August 8, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 99% | Probability of Trump Win: 1% Clinton – Trump Spread: 10.9% Clinton now has reached the 99% probability of winning milestone, if the election were to be held today. The post convention polls continue to solidify Clinton’s lead. This is the highest lead that Clinton has had since …
With the Democrat and Republican conventions finishing, we can expect to see the state of the presidential race to start stabilizing. Clinton’s probability of a win dropped precipitously following the FBI disclosures and continued dropping through the Republican convention. There has been no significant polling post convention so the results still reflect the pre-Democrat convention position. …
Final Review: A summary of the final results can be found here. Original article: 7/22/2016: Being in the height of the presidential election season, there is intense interest as to who is likely to win the November elections. The standard approach in the press has been to commission a poll, report the results and compare …
Elucidor has moved across the road. Our new address is: Elucidor, LLC 140 Broadway, 46th Floor New York, NY 10005 Tel: 212.532.6433 info@elucidor.com
Howard Zail from Elucidor and Nefissa Sator from Forsides Actuary recently delivered a joint presentation to the Actuarial Society of New York on “Solvency II and Predictive Analytics in LTC and Beyond: How U.S. companies can improve Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) by using Advanced techniques developed for Solvency II and emerging predictive analytics methods”. The presentation was …
Predictive Analytics Presentation on ERM to the Actuarial Society of New York Read More »
Here are some recent articles about data science that are worth reading: On Data Science education: Data Science should not be taught in business schools White House To Universities: We Need More Data Scientists Around the industry: IBM to open up Watson to third party developers Research Methods: How Science goes Wrong
Something interesting happened in the lead up to the presidential election. Most of the mainstream media outlets were predicting a statistical dead heat between Obama and Romney, and only towards the end did some in the media start reporting that Obama had a razor thin margin. However, this so-called statistical tie was at odds with …
Bayesian Analytics and the Presidential Election Read More »
