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Life Expectancies in the US Worsen (but with some bright spots)
The CDC has just published its new set of reports analyzing the trends in mortality and life expectancy from 2016 to 2017. Unfortunately, there has been a decline in overall life expectancies in the US. Sources of mortality that have shown statistically significant increases in mortality are (from highest to lowest impact): Uninentional Injuries Influenza …
Life Expectancies in the US Worsen (but with some bright spots) Read More »
Books to Read
Here are some interesting books that I have been reading and would recommend to others. Some of the books are general in nature and accessible to a wide audience, others can be quite technical. The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis (General): This is one of the best books that I have read in years. It is …
Presidential Election: The final week
Into the final stretch now, Clinton’s lead is shrinking sharply from over 8% in the middle of October to 5.4% today. She is still in a commanding position, but a continued fall combined with the Comey e-mail disclosures could make for a much closer race then was expected just a couple of weeks ago. The …
Post Second Debate
Update: October 17, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 98% | Probability of Trump Win: 2% Clinton – Trump Spread: 7.3% The race has remained fairly static over the last week. It seems as if Trump’s base is mostly sticking with him despite the parade of women who, over the last week, claimed that he was sexually inappropriate with …
Going into the Second Presidential Debate
October 9, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 95% | Probability of Trump Win: 5% Clinton – Trump Spread: 6% All the current polls were conducted before the news on Friday . One would think that the relentlessly negative reporting over the last couple of days will be further damaging to Trump. This is the state of the race …
The Effect of the First Presidential Debate
October 1, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 88% | Probability of Trump Win: 12% Clinton – Trump Spread: 4.4% There has been a clear and substantial swing in voter sentiment towards Clinton following the first presidential debate. Trump compounded the effect of the debate by a bad follow up week. Most of the polls were conducted before …
Gaussian Process Models for Actuarial Science
We have written in collaboration Professor Michael Ludkowski and Ph.D candidate James Risk of U.C. Santa Barbara, a paper introducing Gaussian Processes (GPs) to the actuarial community. Our paper has focused on a practical implementation of GPs in mortality analysis. A pre-publication version of the paper can be found here: https://arxiv.org/abs/1608.08291 GPs are an extremely powerful …
Presidential Race Tightens
Update September 26, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 72% | Probability of Trump Win: 28% Clinton – Trump Spread: 2.3% Clinton’s slide continued over the week. On the eve of the first debate, the two candidates are close, but Clinton still has a lead, although clearly not insurmountable. Even without any change in sentiment, there is enough …
On Statistics and Mortality
A WORD ON STATISTICS by Wislawa Szymborska (translated from the Polish by Joanna Trzeciak) Out of every hundred people, those who always know better: fifty-two. Unsure of every step: almost all the rest. Ready to help, if it doesn’t take long: forty-nine. Always good, because they cannot be otherwise: four — well, maybe five. Able …