PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS: Princess Diamond Corona Virus Risk Analysis Introduction This report is a preliminary analysis of the risk of infection (symptomatic and asymptomatic) and death (fatality rate or FR) from the corona virus. The analysis is based on the data derived from the Diamond Princess, a cruise ship which experienced an outbreak of the virus …
Introduction This is a second article in the series of Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science. The first article introduced the Bayesian approach to inferring risk rates and predicting future claims in an actuarial context and built a practical model in Greta, a probabilistic programming language, to conduct the analysis. In a beta binomial model, a …
II. Probabilistic Programming: Survival Analysis Read More »
Introduction A core task of actuarial analysis is estimation of risk rates for insured events. This includes analyses such as estimating mortality rates, lapse rates, incidence rates, termination rates and so on. In addition to determining best estimates for risk rates, understanding the uncertainty around the best estimates is a critical component of the overall …
I. Probabilistic Programming for Actuarial Science Read More »
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The CDC has just published its new set of reports analyzing the trends in mortality and life expectancy from 2016 to 2017. Unfortunately, there has been a decline in overall life expectancies in the US. Sources of mortality that have shown statistically significant increases in mortality are (from highest to lowest impact): Uninentional Injuries Influenza …
Life Expectancies in the US Worsen (but with some bright spots) Read More »
Here are some interesting books that I have been reading and would recommend to others. Some of the books are general in nature and accessible to a wide audience, others can be quite technical. The Undoing Project, Michael Lewis (General): This is one of the best books that I have read in years. It is …
Into the final stretch now, Clinton’s lead is shrinking sharply from over 8% in the middle of October to 5.4% today. She is still in a commanding position, but a continued fall combined with the Comey e-mail disclosures could make for a much closer race then was expected just a couple of weeks ago. The …
Update: October 17, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 98% | Probability of Trump Win: 2% Clinton – Trump Spread: 7.3% The race has remained fairly static over the last week. It seems as if Trump’s base is mostly sticking with him despite the parade of women who, over the last week, claimed that he was sexually inappropriate with …
October 9, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 95% | Probability of Trump Win: 5% Clinton – Trump Spread: 6% All the current polls were conducted before the news on Friday . One would think that the relentlessly negative reporting over the last couple of days will be further damaging to Trump. This is the state of the race …
October 1, 2016 Probability of Clinton Win: 88% | Probability of Trump Win: 12% Clinton – Trump Spread: 4.4% There has been a clear and substantial swing in voter sentiment towards Clinton following the first presidential debate. Trump compounded the effect of the debate by a bad follow up week. Most of the polls were conducted before …
