Bayesian Analytics and the Presidential Election

Something interesting happened in the lead up to the presidential election.  Most of the mainstream media outlets were predicting a statistical dead heat between Obama and Romney, and only towards the end did some in the media start reporting that Obama had a razor thin margin. However, this so-called statistical tie was at odds with …

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Predictive Analytics in Long-Term Care

Howard Zail, partner at Elucidor, will be presenting ideas on predictive analytics in long-term care at the 2012 Society of Actuaries (SOA) annual conference.  He will present on Tuesday, October 16 in  “Session 112:  Hot Topics in Long Term Care Insurance.” Howard will describe how advances in predictive analytics can be applied in an insurance environment …

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Turing Award goes to Bayesian Network Specialist

The Turing Award, which is the computer science equivalent of the Nobel Prize, was awarded to Judea Pearl.  Pearl was honored for his contributions to artificial intelligence.  He championed a probabilistic way of creating smart computer systems rather than building a set of rules.  These systems are encapsulated in Bayesian Networks. Bayesian analysis forms a …

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Ken Watson joins Elucidor

We are pleased to announce that Ken Watson has joined Elucidor as Principal.  Ken is a leading rehabilitation and turnaround manager.  He has steered a number of life insurance, property and casualty insurance and other companies through turnaround and administration.  Ken’s past successes include managing the largest and most successful life insurance rehabilitation in U.S. …

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Lotter Actuarial Partners is now Elucidor

In 1994, I formed Lotter Actuarial Partners, Inc., an actuarial consulting firm specializing in buy-side insurance company appraisals, mortality science and critical illness product design and underwriting. Over the ensuing years, Lotter Actuarial Partners was fortunate to attract talented and creative actuaries, systems analysts, programmers, medical doctors, underwriters and other professionals who brought additional expertise …

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Elucidor can Analyze your Critical Illness Experience

Elucidor can help you get the most out of your Critical Illness experience data.  Because Critical Illness insurance is such a new product, there is very little data available to price benefits.  Using Elucidor’s proprietary predictive modeling engine, DeepInsight!, it is possible to determine within a few short years of writing new Critical Illness business …

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Calstrs Reduces Assumed Rate of Return

The California State Teachers’ Retirement System (Calstrs), the second largest public pension fund in the US, reduced its assumed rate of return from 7.75% to 7.5%.  Calstrs is a $145 billion fund. According to Bloomberg, only 3 of the 11 U.S. pension funds with assets of more than $50 billion have reduced their assumptions since 2007-08.